Pressure on parties as voters prepare to go to the polls in Calgary-Greenway
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As a byelection race comes down to the wire in Calgary-Greenway, leaders of the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose each believe their candidate is in a two-way contest with NDP hopeful Roop Rai.
The two conservative parties took swipes at one another ahead of the Tuesday vote for a new MLA to replace Manmeet Bhullar, a beloved PC killed last November in a highway crash.
Wildrose Leader Brian Jean pitched his party as the only one capable of defeating the NDP, while PC helmsman Ric McIver said his party alone will take care of the province’s people and its finances.
“The PCs are yesterday, and people recognize the Wildrose are today and tomorrow,” Jean said. “We’re the only ones standing up for Albertans, and for fiscally conservative Albertans.”
A recent Mainstreet Research poll for Postmedia showed Tory candidate Prab Gill in the lead, followed by the NDP’s Rai, Wildrose candidate Devinder Toor and Liberal Khalil Karbani in a four-way race.
Jean said indications from door-knocking and advance polls suggest Toor is in a two-way race with Rai, even though he believed at the campaign’s start the PCs would enjoy “an easy win and an easy race.”
McIver said Bhullar’s strong reputation in the riding will help the PCs, whom he said have enjoyed some momentum in recent polling. He said the Wildrose have no interest in protecting social services while the NDP have “no concept” of fiscal management, arguing his party embraces both principles.
“A win would help us increase the momentum that we have clearly garnered in the past several months, admittedly starting from a low ebb,” McIver said.
Premier Rachel Notley said the NDP isn’t losing sight of the fact the byelection was prompted by the death of Bhullar, a former PC cabinet minister who was widely popular.
Notley, who appeared at a campaign event with Rai on Friday evening, said her party is offering a vision of maintaining public services in tough times, but downplayed the significance of the vote in the context of the party’s fortunes.
She noted the NDP lost four byelections in the fall of 2014 before storming to power five months later in the provincial election.
“Obviously, I believe we have an excellent candidate, an excellent candidate who will serve the people of Calgary-Greenway,” Notley told reporters
“It’s really important for the people of Greenway to select representation they think is best for them, and that’s the extent of the punditry I would draw from the outcome.”
Liberal Leader David Swann said Bhullar was popular in the east Calgary riding but his party wasn’t. Claiming “the PC name is mud,” Swann said he’s more concerned about the Wildrose threat from the right wing, though he warned Jean’s party wants to cut social spending.
“This has to be an important riding for us in terms of renewal in the party,” Swann said while door-knocking on the campaign trail. “We have always been the party that opens our doors to new Canadians, and there sure are a lot of new Canadians out here.
“It’s ours to win.”
University of Calgary political science professor Melanee Thomas said the byelection will likely have little long-term significance, given that the next provincial election is still three years away.
But she said the Progressive Conservatives, which were reduced to eight seats with Bhullar’s death, are feeling the most heat in the campaign. The party, which dominated provincial politics for four decades before losing the 2015 election, needs a win to show it’s still in the game, Thomas said.
The stakes are slightly lower for the NDP and Wildrose but both will be hoping for at least a strong showing in the riding, she said.
Thomas said the real test in the campaign will be on the parties’ get-out-the-vote operations, not a referendum on their future fortunes.
“In byelections, how things shake out when people actually vote speaks to the strength of party organization on the ground,” she said.
“You don’t have the broader election context to pull everybody along. So you do need to have this local voter apparatus to pull the voters out. The question is, who is actually organized on the ground.”
No matter who wins, the byelection will make little difference to the functioning of the legislature, where the NDP have a comfortable majority of 54 seats, compared to the Wildrose’s 22 and the PC’s eight. The Liberals and Alberta Party hold one apiece.
But Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said the outcome of the byelection may have significant political consequences, especially around the debate on uniting the political right.
Wildrose Leader Brian Jean has called for talks between grassroots members of his party and the PCs on potential consolidation, but has rejected party to party talks and the overtures from outside groups interested in a united right.
The Tory brass, meanwhile, has been cool to the idea of a united right.
Bratt said an NDP win in the byelection could add new urgency to the unification issue, while a PC victory would likely mean even less incentive for party members to want to join with Wildrose.
A Wildrose win would likely further strengthen the party’s hand and ability to make a take it or leave it position with the Tories.
“Absolutely, it’s going to have an impact,” Bratt said of the byelection.
Green candidate Thana Boonlert and Independents Sukhi Rai, Larry Heather and Said Abdulbaki are also running in the byelection.
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