Poll shows UCP would handily defeat Alberta NDP if election held today
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It didn’t take Albertans long to warm to the newly minted United Conservative Party.
A new Mainstreet Research/Postmedia poll suggests the right-leaning amalgamation of the former Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties would sweep to victory were an election held today, easily leaving the governing NDP in its dust.
The poll, which surveyed 2,100 Albertans July 27-28, days after the historic unity vote between the formerly rival parties, found a solid majority of 57 per cent of decided and leaning voters would thrust the fledgling UCP into office. The NDP, meanwhile, would be ensconced as the main opposition, with some 29 per cent of decided and leaning voters preferring the party led by Premier Rachel Notley.
Trailing in a distant third is the centrist Alberta Party at nine per cent, followed by the Liberals at four per cent.
“It’s been the summer of love for the United Conservative Party,” said Mainstreet president Quito Maggi.
“People in Alberta have been champing at the bit for Jason Kenney and Brian Jean to form a united party of conservatives that can definitely beat the NDP. The numbers are very strong for the UCP.”
For those voters who know which party will get the X on their ballots, the UCP also holds a significant advantage, boasting 43 per cent support compared to the NDP’s 21 per cent. The Alberta Party and Liberals come in with seven per cent and three per cent, respectively, with a significant number of Albertans (27 per cent) declaring themselves undecided.
And it’s those undecideds that may hold a glimmer of hope for Notley’s NDP, Maggi said.
“The undecided voters are still quite high, so the NDP has not completely disappeared,” he said.
“It’s hard to imagine them holding any rural Alberta seats and their numbers in Calgary are relatively strong, but it could still be an NDP sweep in Edmonton. They’re not going to be annihilated.”
The eye-popping advantage suggested by the polls brings Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras back to a time when sweeping Tory majorities were simply a fact of Alberta political life.
“It’s almost like they’ve hit a reset button and they’ve gone back to the days of Ralph Klein and Peter Lougheed,” he said.
“Those numbers translate into towering majorities.”
Taras noted the province’s political landscape has long been shaped by the three stool legs of Alberta politics, Calgary, Edmonton and rural Alberta. And Mainstreet’s poll shows the UCP enjoying clear majorities in two of those three areas, with Edmonton remaining an NDP stronghold.
For decided voters and those leaning towards one of the parties, the poll found the UCP enjoys the support of 50 per cent of Calgary respondents, with a massive 68 per cent of rural Albertans also on board. In both zones, the NDP trails significantly with 32 per cent and 20 per cent support, respectively.
In Edmonton, however, the NDP boasts 47 per cent preferring to keep the party in power, compared to 39 per cent for the UCP.
“Looking at these numbers, the margin of victory (for the UCP) would be very large,” Taras said.
“What kept the Tories in power for 44 years were extreme majorities in rural Alberta and the ability to take Calgary as well. But we are a long way from an election.”
The next provincial election is expected to be held in 2019.
Mainstreet’s poll was collected through a combination of cellphone and landline users, and the survey’s margin of error is considered plus or minus 2.14 points, 19 times out of 20.
On Twitter: @ShawnLogan403
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