Poll finds Albertans unhappy with NDP response to economic slowdown, budget deficit

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With Alberta’s NDP set to roll out its 2017 budget Thursday, a new poll finds Albertans aren’t satisfied with how the government has dealt with the province’s economic woes or how fast it plans to slash red ink from its balance sheet.

The survey, conducted by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia, suggests as Rachel Notley’s government tables its third budget, a majority of Albertans are concerned with the handling of the province’s finances.

Some 58 per cent of the 2,374 Albertans surveyed March 10 said they are dissatisfied with how the government has dealt with Alberta’s slumping economy, while 52 per cent aren’t content to wait another six to seven years to see Alberta’s budget balanced, the time frame suggested last month by Finance Minister Joe Ceci.

Meanwhile, just 24 per cent said the government’s handling of the economy is “good” or “excellent,” with another 10 per cent believing its response has been “fair.” Similarly, some 24 per cent of respondents deemed the government’s speed in slaying the deficit was “about right,” with nine per cent feeling they are actually moving “too fast.”

Mainstreet president Quito Maggi said the numbers don’t necessarily come as a surprise, given the economic pressures that faced the governing NDP almost immediately after its election victory in May 2015. But he noted should the economy rebound, it may buoy the party’s hopes if it can begin to show some progress.

“I think people are seeing this government is at least making an effort to balance the budget,” he said. “On the surface, people will believe the government is making all efforts to execute that plan and, at least in the short-term, they’re going to believe them.

“If, as expected, oil goes up $10 a barrel that will matter, as will some investment and jobs coming back and people starting to see shovels in the ground on some popular projects.”

The responses vary by region, with Edmonton showing the most patience for the government. Some 41 per cent in the capital city feel the NDP’s response to the economy has been poor, compared to 52 per cent in Calgary. In terms of how quickly the government is moving to slay the deficit, only 34 per cent of Edmontonians felt they were moving too slowly, compared to half of all Calgarians polled.

Respondents in the rest of Alberta were significantly less confident on both fronts, the survey found.

As far as budget priorities go, 35 per cent believe lowering taxes is most important, followed by reducing spending to lower the government’s deficit, with 24 per cent deeming it a priority. Beyond that, another 18 per cent feel health and education spending should be the government’s primary focus, with 12 per cent wanting to see more investment in public infrastructure.

“It’s not uncommon to see Albertans acting negatively to taxes,” Maggi said. “People have been vehemently opposed to the carbon tax and any provincial sales tax.”

However, he added the longer a tax remains in place, the more people come to accept it, which has already been reflected in the company’s most recent polling on the controversial levy.

Last month, a Postmedia commissioned poll found support for the NDP’s carbon tax rose by five percentage points to 34 per cent compared to a similar survey in December 2015. And while 64 per cent said in February they were opposed to the carbon tax, that also slightly ebbed by two points.

David Taras, a political analyst at Mount Royal University, said Albertans have endured a barrage of bad news in recent months, and are looking for something hopeful in the government’s fiscal plan.

“The key thing will be, is there anything that’s good news in the budget or is it a bad news budget?” he said. “There’s a Tory backbone here — a lot of people believe in low taxes, small government and the Alberta Advantage.

“It’s tough for people right now, so will there be any good news on the tax front? Any relief on the horizon for tax-weary voters?”

Taras said after enough time in office, voters typically will form judgments about a ruling government, and those are very difficult to alter the longer they’re in power.

“Once people have made a judgment, it becomes very hard to undo,” he said. “What most people are seeing is the deficit is skyrocketing, and this kind of Ontario-ization, where the deficit is reaching the point where it’s growing beyond control, a lot of Albertans begin to see red lights flashing.”

The poll, conducted randomly using a mixture of cellphones and land lines, is considered accurate within 2.01 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

slogan@postmedia.com

On Twitter: @ShawnLogan403