Calgary-Greenway poll shows Tories in the lead in four-way fight

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Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives are leading a four-way horse race in their Calgary-Greenway stronghold ahead of the March 22 byelection, according to a new poll for Postmedia. 

The Mainstreet Research automated phone poll of 523 Calgary-Greenway residents on March 9 shows Progressive Conservative candidate Prab Gill in the lead among decided and leading voters, with 31 per cent support.

The NDP’s Roop Rai is second at 24 per cent, followed by Wildrose candidate Devinder Toor at 22 per cent and Liberal Khalil Karbani at 21 per cent. 

“Even though we’re showing this big lead, it really is anybody’s race at this point … it looks like a four-way race,” said Mainstreet’s David Valentin in an interview.

“I wouldn’t predict this race because it could go any number of ways.”

The poll shows the Green’s Thana Boonlert far behind at one per cent support. There are also three Independent candidates in the race — Said Hussein Abdulbaki, Larry Heather and Sukhi Rai — who were not included in the survey.

The byelection is needed to fill the northeast seat left vacant by Progressive Conservative MLA Manmeet Bhullar, who was killed last November when he was struck by a vehicle after stopping to help a stranded motorist.

Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said Calgary-Greenway is a riding the PCs should win, given Bhullar’s legacy, and need to win to ensure the party’s continued viability. 

“It shows the strength of the political organization … that Manmeet created and they are able to build on,” said Bratt.

“If they cannot win Greenway, then the question is, what riding could they ever win?”

After four decades in office, the Tories were reduced to third place in the legislature in the 2015 election that saw the NDP surge to power. Bhullar defeated the NDP candidate by just over 800 votes in last year’s provincial election.

Bratt said he is more surprised by the Liberals’ relatively strong showing in the campaign, which he attributed in part to the federal Grit resurgence under Justin Trudeau. The party did not field a Calgary-Greenway candidate in 2015.

Even more notable, said Bratt, is the position of the NDP, which has been hammered since taking office by an economic downturn spurred by low oil prices.

The poll shows voters evenly split on Premier Rachel Notley, with 42 per cent strongly or somewhat approving her performance and 42 per cent strongly or somewhat disapproving. 

Valentin notes that’s a positive for Notley and the NDP, with the numbers standing in contrast to Mainstreet’s provincewide polling in February that showed the premier‘s overall disapproval rate as higher than her approval rate — 57 per cent to 36 per cent.

“Whatever she’s doing in this riding is working,” said Valentin.

Bratt noted the riding is a good fit for the New Democrats as a “fairly working-class, multicultural riding.” The NDP swept the surrounding seats in last year’s provincial vote. 

Unsurprisingly, voters in Calgary-Greenway saw the economy as the top issue in the campaign, with 47 per cent picking that option. The next closest choices, taxes and energy, came in at 12 and 11 per cent, respectively.

Asked their opinion on the cause of the province’s economic malaise, 29 per cent of those polled chose Alberta’s dependence on oil, while 21 per cent picked the low price of oil itself. The survey has 19 per cent pegging the NDP government as the main reason for the downturn, while 11 per cent attributed it to the former PC administration.

Among both Wildrose and PC supporters, a plurality blamed the NDP as the prime cause of the province’s economic gloom.

Valentin noted there are a number of factors that add uncertainty to the Calgary-Greenway race, including a margin of error of 4.26 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll also measured the enthusiasm of party supporters and showed that the NDP, PCs and Wildrose were equally matched in the number of supporters who say they are certain to vote.

When supporters who say they are likely to vote are added in, the Liberals have more than half of their supporters certain or likely to go to the polls — substantially higher than the other parties.

Among Wildrose backers, however, only eight per cent say they are unlikely to cast a ballot. In contrast, a quarter of NDP supporters and nearly one-third of PCs say they are unlikely to actually vote.  

“The Wildrose voters here seem a lot more motivated than the other parties. And that’s why they could win,” said Valentin.

jwood@postmedia.com